Here we go...

• That's about the toughest hit on McCain -- the "Bomb Iran" song, etc. McCain saying "not true"? It's real tough to say you didn't say it when everyone has seen the tape.
• Going back a second, Ambinder catches one of the key contrasts of this election: "McCain: Health care is a privilege. Obama: health care is a right."
• I have to think that McCain is the first ever presidential candidate to talk about his need for hair plugs...
• Now McCain is lurking in the background -- Cheney-like, in fact. I feel a major aspect of the SNL debate skit coming on...
• "That one"? Really. There's a point at which a candidate's lack of respect for his opponent becomes a real detriment to that first candidate -- and the fact that McCain can't look at Obama, he can't sit still while Obama speaks, and now can't even say his name, just calling him "that one," says to me that he has clearly crossed that line.

Previous updates below the fold...

What a shocker. John McCain is freakin Guy Smiley tonight, looking right into Barack's eyes as he greets him, patting him on the arm. Right after sitting down, McCain started scribbling away. Take those notes!

First question about bailing out Main St, not just Wall St.

Update [2008-10-7 22:1:12 by Todd Beeton]:OK, during that last minute of Barack's response, the women in the focus group were literally a straight horizontal line at the highest level of the dial.

Update [2008-10-7 22:8:23 by Todd Beeton]:McCain's attack on Obama equating withdrawal with surrender totally flat lined among the focus group.

Update [2008-10-7 22:12:10 by Todd Beeton]:"If we have Osama bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistan will not act, we must." McCain is hitting Obama for "announcing" that we're going to attack Pakistan. Did he just say Obama's remarks turned Pakistan public opinion against us?

Newest posts on top - earlier ones below the fold...

• I'm not sure what the total number of viewers for this debate will be, but I bet a huge number changed the channel after a few minutes. Is anyone enjoying this format?
• McCain lied about sending troops into Lebanon
• Ambinder: McCain: "There are some things that Obama just doesn't understand" in re: foreign policy... Obama turns it around: "I don't understand how we ended up invading the country that had nothing to do with 9/11..."
• It's bizarre that during the first debate, Lehrer practically begged the candidates to engage with each other - now Brokaw seems to be ragging them for engaging. Ugh.
• BO on McCain taxing employer health benefit: "what one hand giveth, the other taketh away"
• "That one??"
• Brokaw keeps complaining about time limits. Lame.
• Great energy answer from Obama
• Is it just me, or is the mustache ratio in the town hall audience off the charts?

A few cool debate resources as you watch tonight:

• MySpace and The Commission on Presidential Debates joined forces for MyDebates.com.
• C-SPAN's very cool Debate Hub.
• And remember, if you're tweeting the debate, throw in a #current tag and your message might make it on CurrentTV's broadcast of the debate.

My one negative pre-debate thought: this is probably going to be one of those things where John McCain says "my friends" and "time for some straight talk" a lot. My one positive pre-debate thought: McCain has such a deluded sense of his own ability at these things that he gets a false sense of confidence and starts saying stupid shit -- I just have this feeling he's going to have a YouTube moment tonight.

This has been a rather newsworthy day in the fight for marriage equality in California...but not in a good way.

First the polling data on Proposition 8, which is the right wing's ballot initiative to eliminate same sex couple's right to marry, via e-mail:

A new poll just released by KPIX, San Francisco's CBS television affiliate, reveals a shocking shift in support for Proposition 8. According to the poll, likely California voters now favor passage of Prop 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent, following a recent blitz of advertising by supporters of the initiative. Meanwhile, an internal poll just released by the "No on 8" campaign confirms the KPIX poll numbers, showing Prop 8 winning 47%-43%.

Now Julia at Calitics reports No on Prop 8 is behind Yes on 8's fundraising by $6 million.

California progressives have gotten a bit complacent on this ballot measure's chances, which is why the Courage Campaign has launched its new web ad "Gender Auditors", which uses humor to attack Prop 8 from a privacy and fairness perspective.  

From Julia:

It is aimed at straight people, using a privacy, "get the government out of my pants" argument.  The undecided electorate is quirky.  Some of your friends will be swayed by talk about fundamental rights being taken away.

Do me a favor and watch it, rate it up and spread it to your friends. We have to get the word out to oppose Prop. 8. You can find out more about the campaign for equality at NoOnProp8.com.

(disclosure: I'm proud to work for the Courage Campaign)

Yesterday I mentioned how ineffective McCain's attacks on Obama were as they didn't reflect any real or perceived notion about who Barack Obama actually was (i.e. he's "touchy", "angry", "dangerous", really? Have you seen the guy?)

It seems to be running in the family. Check out this doozy from Cindy McCain today (h/t TPM):

Cindy McCain said today that she expects her husband to clear the record at tonight's debate and let America know where he truly stands.

McCain, who stopped to visit a half-dozen children at the Monroe Carell Jr. Children's Hospital at Vanderbilt today, said the presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has "waged the dirtiest campaign in American history," and her husband Sen. John McCain will use tonight's debate to correct the distortions.

Umm, huh? Now, I won't sit here and pretend the Obama campaign has been 100% positive or even that they haven't engaged in some truth stretching. But even if we concede that McCain's campaign hasn't been sleazier than Obama's (which, of course, is laughable), is McCain REALLY suggesting that Obama's campaign has out-sleazed Bush's 2000 primary campaign during which Rove launched a whisper campaign against McCain suggesting he'd fathered a black child? Or the notoriously dirty 1988 Bush Sr. campaign against Michael Dukakis? How divorced from reality can this woman be? Of course, it's of a piece with the detachment from any sort of reality that has characterized the entire McCain campaign over the past few weeks, so in a way it actually makes perfect sense.

Update [2008-10-7 20:19:33 by Todd Beeton]:I'm sensing a pattern here. Call it "McCainian exceptionalism." Just like America, in their twisted worldview, John McCain can do nor ever has done any wrong. Chris Bowers points to this description of John McCain from his campaign website:

John McCain has always put his country's interests before any party, special interest and even his own self-interest. He has always and will always do what is right for our country.

Whoah, he must be awesome, I just can't see how awesome he is. Bowers:

He has always, and will always, do what is right for America? He has never been wrong, once, ever? That's pretty amazing. I wonder if his infinite wisdom on how to help America includes his latest decision to run such a poor campaign that he won't actually become President.

Well, come to think of it...

In my opinion, that has actually helped America.

A couple of things I've been meaning to mention today...

• AmericaBlog is running a fundraiser for Betsy Markey, a great candidate running against the noxious Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado's fourth congressional district. The polling in the race looks great, but Markey needs our help, so please make a contribution -- even a few bucks -- today.
  
• C-SPAN has a real neat Debate Hub feature on their website which is a great place to watch and follow the debate, particularly for those without a television. The Hub is also tracking the blogs -- including MyDD, which I'm told was quoted on-air after the Vice Presidential debate last week -- so check it out if you're interested.

Other than that, feel free to consider this an open thread... What's on your mind this afternoon?

Update [2008-10-7 16:15:42 by Todd Beeton]:More:

• Current TV is going to be airing select tweets about the debate during their live broadcast. To put your debate-related Twitter messages into contention, include #current tag in the body of your message.
• Oregon's excellent US Senate candidate Jeff Merkley raised a whopping $2 million last quarter, $850,000 of which was from online donations including what you guys generously contributed at our Road To 60 ActBlue page. Jeff says a big thanks:

Chris Cillizza has the details:

Barack Obama is outspending John McCain at nearly a three-to-one clip on television time in the final weeks of the presidential election, according to ad buy information obtained by The Fix, a financial edge that is almost certainly contributing to the momentum for the Illinois senator in key battleground states.

From Sept. 30 to Oct. 6, Obama spent more than $20 million on television ads in 17 states including more than $3 million in Pennsylvania and more than $2 million each in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain in that same time frame spent just $7.2 million in 14 states. Even when the Republican National Committee's independent expenditure spending in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin is factored in (a total of $5.3 million), Obama still outspent the combined GOP forces by roughly $8 million in the last week alone.

There had been concern for a time that Barack Obama's fundraising juggernaut might not be enough for the combined fundraising might of the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee -- the two of which, along with assorted state parties, could reap campaign contributions approaching $100,000 in size -- but this report from Cillizza should help assuage such worries. The fact that the Obama campaign is still advertising in 17 states -- not 8 or 11, but a 17 -- says a great deal. Obama still has a sizable 60 percent plus edge in ad spending even considering RNC independent expenditures. With McCain's negatives already on the rise and the political environment clearly favoring the Democrats, it's going to be awfully difficult for the GOP nominee to claw his way back in this with significantly less money to spend than his Democratic rival.